Population Growth and Mineral Demand

CAN PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE? Can population growth in the world keep going at the average rates of the last few decades, till, say, the year 2000? And beyond? At the same time, can we expect steady increases in mineral consumption per head, all over the world, as the living standards of many nations converge toward the living standards of North America? If they do converge? Does the total fund of world resources extend, with foreseeable techniques, to supplying the consequent demands for metals, non-metallic minerals and energy? Do we have the requisite economic and scientific techniques available to answer these questions? Certainly, we cannot forecast over decades with any certainty. There are many, of course, who seem to believe that by the simple fitting of trends, they can tell us something about the world and resource constraints in the year 2000, twenty-three years from now. It is significant that many studies of this sort have added sustenance to the 'doom-watching' fraternity of commentators. The reason is simple. The extrapolation of exponential trends into the distant future frequently leads to the most astounding and impossible scenarios. Another feature of exponential growth is the suddenness with which certain fixed limits are approached. It took world population two hundreds years to increase by 1/2 a billion, from 1650 to 1850. Yet some U.N. estimates suggest that the net addition to human population will be over 2 billion between now and the end of the century. Thus, the present world population would increase from a little under four thousand million today to rather over six thousand million in the year 2000.