Potash And Politics

First of all, I want to thank John Dunlap for asking me to this AIME meeting in Denver. I was first introduced to Denver and The Rocky Mountains more than ten years ago and immediately decided it was one of the most attractive spots in the world. I've come back many times since and still welcome any opportunity to return, even if it means I have to prepare and give a paper on potash. When John Dunlap gave me this assignment, he told me that the program would include papers on the geology of potash, papers on new discovered potash deposits and new mines and asked me to discuss potash from the commercial point of view. He also asked me to include a supply/demand outlook for potash. However, one thing he did not mention was "how far into the future he wanted me to look" and it seems to me the time element is a crucial factor to you who are both geologists and miners as well as to me. In your case, you have to look far enough into the future to give you time to explore, find, evaluate, develop, and bring into production a commercial deposit. My mining associates and friends don't agree on how long that takes but it's probably somewhere in the range of eight to fifteen years. But, they all agree on one thing and that is that the time required is continually getting longer. Now my time problem is just the opposite. It is "relatively" easy, and I stress relatively, to identify and evaluate the importance of the various factors that impact on both the supply of and demand for a commodity such as potash if the time period is today. It gets a little tough if one has to project into tomorrow or next week or next month. And when we start talking in terms of a year, five years or ten or fifteen years, things really get sticky and the old crystal ball becomes mighty cloudy. But we economists and forecasters are not known for our temerity so let me get on with the job at hand and take a look at the world potash supply/demand outlook.