Prediction Of Delayed Subsidence

Contrary to active subsidence, which occurs concurrently with mining operations, or is completed within a few days following coal extraction, delayed subsidence may take many years to appear at the surface after coal mines are abandoned. There are two principal morphological types of delayed subsidence: troughs, which are shallow depressions, and sinks, which are steep-sided crown pits. Both types are damaging to surface structures, and a variety of methods have been introduced to deal with the problem, ranging from subsidence insurance to site restitution. In planning insurance or restitution measures, a predictive model is of value in estimating the magnitude of the problem and the size of long-term budgetary commitments. Only one model is known, which was developed for the Bureau of Mines by GAI Consultants of Monroeville (l,2,3). The GAI model is presented in qualitative terms. This report develops a formal basis for the model and tests a numerical implementation on one of the best-described study areas, Allleqheny County in Pennsylvania.