Prediction of Surface Subsidence by Probability Function Integration Method

Probability function integration method is one of the influence function method. It is a widely accepted method in many mining districts in China and Poland mainly because its theory and formulae can well-represent the surface subsidence basins due to longwall mining of flat or near-flat seams. This paper introduces the basic theory of the probability function integration method and determines its 4 basic parameters by analyzing the measured subsidence profiles in eight longwall panels in Northern Appalachian Coal field. It also discusses the two methods for determining the 4 parameters. Finally the acquired parameters are used to predict the subsidence and deformation of the houses for damage assessment. Comparisons are made between the measured and the predicted subsidence. Probability Function Integration Method The probability function integration method for predicting surface movements and deformations is widely used in China and Poland. The governing equation of the method contains five parameters: subsidence factor, a, offset of inflection point, d, tangent of the major influence angle, tan fl, horizontal movement constant, b, and major dispersion angle e (e = 90. for flat seams). Its applicable range iis much larger including seams less than 30' from the horizontal, critical and noncritical mining and soft to hard overburden.