Predictive Groundwater Solute-Transport Models and the Permitting Process for Mine Waste Facilities in Wisconsin, USA ù A Case Study From a Proposed Site Near Crandon

In Wisconsin, state laws and regulations governing metallic mine permitting stipulate that protection of groundwater quality be assured indefinitely through all phases of the mining project, including development, active mining, reclamation, and long-term closure. By rule, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) requires that permit applicants use a numerical model to assist in the assessment of compliance with this requirement for all proposed mine-waste facilities. As a part of the compliance assessment, model calculations are used to predict groundwater solute concentrations through time at designated boundaries for comparison to current groundwater quality standards. In practice, this modelling requirement has involved the application of numerical solute-transport models. Our review of a solute-transport model submitted by the developers of a proposed mine near Crandon, Wisconsin, provides us with an opportunity to assess the usefulness of transport modelling as a permitting requirement. Recent evaluations of solute-transport models by other workers suggest limitations in predictive accuracy. Our review of the model submitted for this project also identified important limitations due primarily to uncertainty in calibration of model parameters at the undeveloped site. The utility of any model to predict project compliance or non-compliance with numerical standards is limited by the range of uncertainty of key model parameters, such as dispersivity and porosity. Uncertainty in the future behaviour of the solute source(s) also reduces the predictive power. Moreover, the site characterisation provided by the model may have limited power to describe the site condition post-development. Although these inherent shortcomings accompany the use of solute transport models at undeveloped sites, the requirement for model development and the ensuing technical review has substantially assisted in our evaluation of site conditions and project design. Through this process we have identified elements of the waste facility design that are crucial to the environmental viability of the project, resulting in modifications to original project proposals. While results from this model review will be used to evaluate compliance, additional benefits come from the identification of critical design features that enhance groundwater protection.