Probabilistic quantification of uncertainty in predicting mine pit-lake water quality

The scrutiny given to model predictions of pit-lake water quality has focused attention on the uncertainty associated with long-term predictions. Although comparison of probabilistic predictive modeling of water quality in existing pit lakes suggest that short-term predictions can bracket most parameters, un¬certainties in wall-rock reactions and the stability of groundwater composition and climate remain unquantified This overview of the uncertainties associated with longer-term predictions is presented as support for those considering policy decisions that must be made in the absence of reliable estimates of future conditions.