Probabilistic Quantification Of Uncertainty In Predicting Mine Pit-Lake Water Quality (8bb3ab18-1516-4bf4-9057-f861e8ded8f0)

The scrutiny given to model predictions of pit-lake water quality has focused attention on the uncertainty associated with long-term predictions. Although comparison of probabilistic predictive modeling of water quality in existing pit lakes indicates that short-term predictions can bracket most parameters, uncertainties in wall-rock reactions and the stability of groundwater composition and climate remain unquantified. This overview of the uncertainties associated with longer-term predictions is presented as support for those considering policy decisions that must be made in the absence of reliable estimates of future conditions.