Probability Analysis of Rock and Soil Slopes in a Complex Geology Environment

In the stability assessment of open pit walls, geotechnical engineers have to deal with uncertainty related to structural geology, rock mechanical parameters, groundwater and so on. This uncertainty will immediately and significantly impact on wall stability assessment and therefore. influence mineral recovery and ultimately the financial return of open pit mining. However, the conventional factor of safety applied to measure the stability of slopes and the relevant analytical computer packages cannot quantitatively consider the variability or uncertainty of the input data. As a supplement, therefore, geotechnical engineers have begun to apply probability to the stability assessment of open pit walls over the last two decades. To-date unfortunately, no powerful computer package is available to geotechnical engineers to conduct the probability analysis of slope stability. This paper presents a computer package of probability analysis for rock and soil slope stability. In this computer package, the strength parameters of rock and/or soil material such as cohesion, friction angle and unit weight of the different rock and/or soil type domain in a complex structural geology environment can be considered as the basic input random variables. Groundwater level can also be taken into account as a random variable in this package. Two `rigorous' limit equilibrium solutions, the Morgenstern/Price method and the Sarma method, can be used to calculate the factor of safety during Monte Carlo Simulation applied in this program. Five types of probability distribution are included in this package for the user to simulate basic input random variables. Two realistic cases from BHP Iron Ore are used to illustrate this package.