Probability Techniques For Analyzing Open Pit Production Systems

In, any open pit mine the ability to make accurate production estimations for the shovel-truck system is an important asset. This is true in an operating mine wishing to estimate production under a set of system modifications (i.e. more trucks, fewer loaders, change in roads, etc.), as well as in the pre- mining planning stages of a property. Many different methods have been proposed for solving this problem; some of the methods rely heavily on "rules of thumb" while others are highly mathematical and require access to a high speed digital computer. Analysis of shovel-truck systems with the use of simulation models is a widely accepted technique within the industry. Through the use of such models it is possible to account for much of the inherent variability of the system and thus produce meaningful results. However, simulation studies are expensive. Formulation and setup of the actual simulation model requires a significant commitment of time and energy. In addition, the cost of the necessary computer runs is often of considerable magnitude.