Probable Error In Blast-Furnace Records And Calculations Therefrom

A SHORT time ago, one of the large steel companies courteously furnished the author with detailed records of the operations of a considerable number of iron blast furnaces over a period of two months. These will be made the basis of a subsequent study, but in beginning this study one of -the first points requiring consideration was the probable error of the records, for what otherwise might be regarded as significant differences of performance under different conditions were perhaps really due to errors of observation, or failure to observe and record variations. If it is assumed, in blast-furnace records and calculations, that known quantities or factors are constant, when as a matter of fact they are variable, the effects of these variations may erroneously be ascribed to some other cause. This is quite clearly expressed in the following quotation from E. Buckingham:1 Theory always operates on an ideally simplified picture of reality because real phenomena are unmanageably complicated. The results obtained are not exactly true for any, real phenomenon, though they may be for an ideal one; and the approxi¬mation with which a theoretical equation, however obtained, represents the actual facts, always depends on the approximation in essentials between the ideal picture and its real prototype. The purpose of dimensional reasoning is to find out how some quantity which is involved in the phenomenon under consideration is related to certain others; or to find the relation connecting two or more quantities which vary, or may vary, simulta-neously during the course of the phenomenon. Since we know that we must have a complete equation to start with, we begin by thinking the matter over, to see whether the quantities we have in mind are the only ones involved. Usually it is evident that they are not; so we next make a list of all the quantities we can think of which might under any circumstances be important. Upon considering this list, which is often a long one, it is usually evident that under the actual circumstances a number of these quantities may safely be ignored; so we cross them off the list and thus pass from our most general conception of the phenomenon to an ideal simpler one, in which these quantities are not involved at all.