Prognoses for Alberta thermal and metallurgical coal

"Projections of demand for Alberta coal indicate a quadrupling of current production rates to some 70 million tonnes/year by the end of the century. About half of this output-comprised of subbituminous coal-will be required within the province, primarily for generation of electric energy. The remainder-roughly 70 per cent high-volatile bituminous (hvb) steam coal and 30 per cent medium- or low-volatile bituminous (mvb/lvb) metallurgical coal-will be exported, principally to Pacific Rim and Western European countries. Direct employment in mining and coal processing is projected to increase from the present ca. 3000 to at least 12,000 persons.This paper presents separate forecasts for subbituminous, hvb and mvb/lvb coal production in the period 1982-2000; notes a number of possible developments that could substantially modify these forecasts; and briefly discusses attendant infrastructure requirements. Attention is drawn to potential shortages of qualified manpower and to threatening inadequacies of transportation facilities.IntroductionDespite the dislocations triggered by the 1973 'oil crisis', energy budgets of Western industrial countries are mostly still in the very early stages of the anticipated transition to greater reliance on coal. Shift s to coal are still more often only talked about than being implemented; and the public policies which are essential for timely development of facilities for producing, transporting and using coal are in many instances not yet even broadly formulated, let alone enunciated.In these circumstances, long-range projections of coal demand and supply-even if restricted to internal requirements- are subject to greater uncertainties than usually afflict such forecasts.On the demand side of the equation, these uncertainties arise ultimately from linkages between a need for coal and the availability and pricing of OPEC oil. The current surplus of oil on world markets, which has recently forced substantial reductions of posted prices, is undoubtedly a transient phenomenon that is unlikely to have any long-term impact."