Project NPV as a Portfolio of Derivative Securities

It has long been recognised that applications of the Net Present Value (NPV) investment decision making methodology can have serious deficiencies in situations where investment can be delayed and, once made, various options allow increases or decreases in the level of output. NPV valuation can undervalue the project if it does not incorporate future flexibilities or ""options"". It is important to realise that a proper valuation of a project (ie, valuation of its future cash flows) must incorporate an analysis of optimal future decisions involved in managing the project. Current valuation cannot be divorced from a consideration of future decision making. There is now a considerable amount of literature, mainly academic, identifying and exploring ways of remedying these deficiencies in the application of NPV. While the necessity of period by period analysis is sometimes acknowledged, little if any practical illustrative model building has been published to date, aside from algorithms using continuous time stochastic processes which deny access to the uninitiated.