Prospects for Future Gold Supply

SEVERAL years ago, I estimated the total stock of gold in the world to be about a thousand million ounces, of which rather over one-third was available for monetary uses. Robert H. Ridgway has estimated the world's production from 1493 to 1927 as slightly over this amount. Of this total, 1.5 per cent was produced between 1493 and 1850 (before the Californian and Australian goldfields began to flood the world with gold), 331/2 per cent from 1851 to 1900, and 511/2 per cent from 1900 to 1927. Allowing for loss by attrition and permanent consumption in the arts, and for loss of buried treas¬ure, my first-mentioned estimate is perhaps not far from the truth; but my estimate of the monetary stock was certainly too low. Of the total production stated by Rid-way. 28 per cent came from North America. 26.9 per cent from Africa, 1.6.8 per cent from Australasia, 12.4 per cent from South America, and 11.2 per cent from Asia. Excepting that from the African conglomerate beds, the ultimate origin of which is still the subject of controversy, by far the greater part of the total production was derived from alluvials. Weighing all contingencies, it is improbable that any such production as has been made during the last forty years will be repeated in any similar period, if the present price level is maintained. The gold standard today seems firmly established except for temporary digressions. Nevertheless, no well-informed mining engineer will venture to assert the probability that the material for its maintenance throughout future generations can be furnished.