Quantification Of Travel Path Uncertainty By Geostatistical Simulation (f54d2155-2059-49fe-85da-d41e83985a36)

There are many risks associated with the storage of nuclear or other toxic wastes. One of the major risks is the escape of material from the repository. No matter how well a storage facility is engineered, the potential escape of dangerous material must be studied. This kind of study will include some estimation of the "travel path" of the particles. The travel path of a radio-nuclide particle will depend on the geological and hydrological parameters of the surrounding rocks. These parameters must be estimated from a limited number of samples available within the study area. Any estimation will -of necessity -contain a certain amount of uncertainty or "estimation error". This uncertainty will be carried through to the analysis of potential movement of particles, so that the estimated travel path itself will be subject to some error. This paper discusses an approach which may lead to a quantification of the uncertainty on the predicted travel path.