Quantifying the Economic Risk of Suboptimal Mine Plans and Strategies

When times are tough in the mineral industry û as they have been for some time û typical responses by mining companies are to cut costs and/ or increase production. The latter is seen to spread fixed costs, thereby also reducing unit costs per tonne mined. However, most mineral deposits respond to increased production rates by lowering ore grades, so the reduction in cost per tonne of ore does not necessarily result in a reduced cost per unit of metal produced. The authorsÆ experience is that this process often leads to a mine plan that is a long way from optimal. Producing to the point where marginal cost equals marginal revenue may work well in a manufacturing operation, but it is not necessarily the best strategy for a mining company with a depleting resource. Variations in tonnage and grade with depth, ore reserve optimism and a variety of other factors conspire to produce variations in production rates and grade that often result in suboptimal outcomes and potential mine failure. Added to this is the focus of industry analysts and senior corporate management on such measures as unit costs and ounces in reserves. This is perceived to have the perverse effect of driving the share price down when strategies are adopted that actually improve the value of the mining operation, and vice versa! Many mine failures can be prevented by a close examination of the tonnage grade curve and an understanding of how margins, net cash flows and resulting business risk change with cut-off grades and rates of production. A few relatively simple analyses early in the evaluation of a project can demonstrate the tradeoffs between the main decision parameters, leading to right-sizing of the operation. Once major commitments to major capital items have been made, and reserves have been publicly reported, optimisation of the operation becomes much more difficult than if it had been done earlier. Such investigations can also identify the upside potential and downside risks associated with factors outside the companyÆs control. Many strategies that may enhance value in the good times significantly increase the downside risk in the bad times. What is often called risk analysis typically looks at superficial issues, and does not evaluate the major factors leading to the potential for financial disaster. This paper illustrates some of these major risks, and demonstrates how they may be fully evaluated so that corporate decision makers can make fully informed decisions that take account of the real risks.