Quantifying the value of flexibility when conducting stochastic mine investment analysis

"An often over-looked component in the assessed value of a mining property is the value derived from the ability of the operator to limit financial losses during adverse economic times (i.e. low market price, high energy prices, etc.) by suspending operations. Overlooking the value of this type of operating flexibility when conducting mine investment analysis may negatively bias the risk profile for the investment by over estimating the investment's downside potential, thereby effectively undervaluing the investment. This paper illustrates the nature of the value of operating flexibility and discusses how it may be explicitly quantified within the context of conducting stochastic mine investment analysis. IntroductionMining properties are evaluated using an array of techniques ranging from simplistic non-discounted payback calculation s to sophisticated, discounted-stochastic simulation. Stochastic simulation analysis is perhaps the most robust mine investment analysis technique as it not only provides an estimate of the expected value of the property, but also quantifies the associated risks (for examples of stochastic mine investment analysis, see: Billingsley and Yaychuk, 1986; Gentry and O'Neil, 1984; Munro, 1977; or Harris, 1970).The quantification of risk is important as it provides the necessary yardstick required to allocate the corporation's resources efficiently. Resources are said to be allocated efficiently when the corporation's expected long-term financial reward is maximized while at the same time minimizing its risk (see Hertz, 1968; or Markowitz, 1952 for in depth discussions on efficiency as it relates to investment policy). The efficient allocation of resources should be the objective of any rational corporation. Therefore, rational corporations should employ stochastic evaluation techniques when screening their investments."