Reservoir Engineering – General - Modifications to Decline Curve Analysis

This report develops equations for decline curve analysis based upon the premise that the rate of change of the reciprocal of decline for succeeding time intervals is constant when the reservoir is produced under a fixed set of conditions. A method is shown for predicting maximum production rate against cumulative production for any reservoir. A method is also presented for predicting future production rate by an analysis of past production performance after decline has been esrahlished. INTRODUCTION No significant contribution to the analysis of decline curves by the loss-ratio method has been made since J. J. Arps paper1. The concept of loss-ratio that was developed by Arps and his contemporaries has been redefined in another way and the concept of instantaneous loss-ratio at time zero has been added. In the mathematical developmerit by Arps, production rate was related as a continuous function with time and his equatlons were developed on that basis. In this paper, production is considered to be a series of segments for equal time intervals and equations have been developed based upon these finite differences. It is realized that decline curve analysis is not the answer to all predictions of reservoir behavior. However, as production must decline from an initial maximum rate to zero in any reservoir, if such decline can be expressed as an infinite series, this series should accurately predict production. Decline curve analysis should be considered a valuable tool that may be used in conjunction with predictions of future recoveries by other methods. Various uses of the decline curve method will be discussed in this paper. Equations predicting production rate at any time and cumulative production by exponential and hyperbolic decline will be developed. Characteristic values of b related to various types of drive will be discussed. After that a hypothetical reservoir will be studied and ultimate recovery by natural depletion and pressure maintenance compared, then actual field examples will be shown and discussed. The rate-cumulative curve introduced by H. N. Marshs in 1928 is an important one for use in estimating future production rate and ultimate recovery. This graphical method is the one that is used in conjunction with the equations to be developed for predicting production behavior. EXPONENTIAL DECLINE In exponential decline each succeeding production rate per unit of time is a constant percentage of the production rate just before it. Since (1 — r) is the common ratio, where r is the constant decline rate, this condition may be expressed as a geometrical progression; thus Pn = P (1 - r)n-1 . ......(1) Where r is less than unity, r Since P1 (1 - r)n = Pn+1 P1 - Pn+1 C =P1-Pn+1/r........(2) LOSS-RATIO In this paper the calculation for loss-ratio has been changed from the method presented by Johnson and Bollens2. The first loss-ratio to be calculated is a,; it is the initial production per unit of time after decline has set in divided by the difference between the initial and the second production rate. This loss-ratio is for the first time interval. After b (which is the constant change