RI 2174 Our Future Supplies of Petroleum Products

"The significant facts in the problem of the relation between the production of crude petroleum, and the ever-increasing demand for petroleum products are that in spite of continually increasing production, improvements in methods of refining and utilization, and heavy increases in imports, demands grow still more rapidly and we seem always faced with a shortage at hand or lust ahead. On the other hand, our foremost authorities warn um of entirely inadequate domestic reserves. Looking abroad we find some large fields and many of speculative promise, 'tut the situation is complicated by international relations and demands by other countries which promise to be even more insistent than oars. This is the situation, then. We can not rely upon our own Crude Petroleum to meet the Ever Increasing Demand for Petroleum Products.I wish to follow this somewhat alarming statement by saying at once that the Bureau of Mines is not pessimistic in facing this situation. To my mind those who discuss the oil situation may be placed in three categories; the pessimists, the optimists, and the super-optimists. The pessimists I call those who see darkly and will concede no possibility of solution. According to them a few years will see the automobiles piled in windrows of 'dilapidated junk, I have no sympathy with this point of view and deem it vicious and entirely unwarranted.The optimists I term those who believe that there is a solution and that we shall be able to meet all of our reasonable requirements for as far into the future as can be foreseen, yet who recognizes that this desired end can not be attained without prevision and energetic effort.The super-optimists are those who will say to you, ""There is nothing to this talk of shortage, whenever we have needed oil we have always found it and always will."" To these gentlemen the possibility of an inadequate supply of oil is as incomprehensible as the possibility of the extinction of the passenger pigeon was to the early settlers who saw flocks that hid the sun for days during their passage. The passenger pigeon disappeared within two generations thereafter, and I deem this point of view as being perhaps more vicious than that of the extreme pessimist. It seems to me it is nothing less than improvidence lulling us into a false sense of security. There is an old proverb to the effect that ""The Lord helps him who helps himself."" I believe that we shall solve the oil problem, but I do not think it will be solved by vague optimism. It is going to call for our most energetic efforts and I believe we shall have to do a lot of ""helping ourselves."""