RI 6778 Using Probability Models As A Basis For Making Decisions During Mineral Deposit Exploration

This report documents 653 sets of sample data involving 78,366 assays obtained from past exploration for various minerals and metals. Most of these data have been taken from published reports describing exploration projects, conducted jointly by the Bureau of Mines and the Geological Survey, for the Strategic Minerals Program from 1940 through 1949. Means and standard deviations have been computed for the exploration assay data and have been plotted on graphs for 22 minerals and metals. A mathematical model, based on the binomial distribution, has been developed to explain the configuration of the plots of the exploration means and standard deviations. The two statistics, mean and standard deviation, which describe assay data, have been used for simulating probability models. These probability models then have been combined with the binomial model of the exploration assays and related to the sequential decision process associated with exploration drilling for mineral deposits. These probability regions can be used to form the basis for sequentially predicting the probable range of the average grade of mineral or metal that may be expected as an exploration drilling program is continued after the initial discovery of mineralization has been made.