Risk Adjusted Cash Flows: Discount Rates, Risk & Long Life Projects

Net Present Value Impact of Discount Rate The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method of valuations is universally used and accepted. The main criticism of the method is that it does not recognize the value of projects long life projects. This can be seen in the preceding graph where the present value of cash flows in later years are small for discount rates over about 10%. This graph covers a project that has a 25 year operating life. It is clear from the low height of the NPV bars at 10% and 15% in the last years of the project that an additional 25 years would add almost no value to total project NPV. As an example of this effect, an colleague undertook the evaluation of a pulp and paper project. The plant could be justified, but it was not possible to justify planting the trees as they took too long to grow and so had not appreciable NPV. The plant had to purchase wood to feed the plant.