Second-Quarter National Economic Activity And Third-Quarter Outlook - Second-Quarter National Economic Statistics

The economy continued to expand during the second quarter, but at a much slower pace than expected. According to latest estimates released by the Department of Commerce, the real gross national product (GNP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.6% compared with a revised growth rate of 3.8%2 for the first quarter of 1986 and 2.3% for the second quarter of 1985 (table 1). The strong growth of personal consumption expenditures, Government purchases of goods and services, and residential investment was moderated by the growing trade deficit, declining investment in business inventories, and the continuing lag in nonresidential investment. Much of the decreased capital spending for the nonresidential sector for the first and second quarters resulted from reduced petroleum exploration and drilling in response to low petroleum prices. Capital spending and trade continue to be areas of weakness for the economy. Real new plant and equipment expenditures for 1986 are estimated to be 1.3% below those of 1985 (table 2). Real net exports of goods and services decreased $24.6 billion, as exports declined 5.6% and imports grew 16.5%. About two-thirds of the $19.3 billion increase in imports was in petroleum and petroleum products, which, because of their lower prices, should help the economy in the future. In response to the sluggishness of the economy, the Federal Reserve System reduced its discount rate from 6.5% to 6% in early July. Inflation, as measured by the fixed-weighted GNP price index, declined from a revised 2.5% in the first quarter to 1.9% in the second quarter because of significantly lower energy prices.