Selling Forward Increases Profits For Gold Producers

Whether pursuing hedging or speculative strategies, gold miners can increase sales revenues 1 % to 6% by constantly pricing production forward. Unlike other commodities, gold futures prices are consistently higher than spot prices. A Colorado School of Mines study showed theoretically and empirically that in the 15 years since the price of gold was released from government control, the forward price for gold has been higher than the current price almost 100% of the time. The reason why Metal traders know that holders of metal earn a bonus selling forward when the metal is in "contango." "Contango" is a mysterious word that crept into the trading vocabulary a century ago. It designates a situation when the price of a metal on the futures markets is higher than the price in the immediate or spot market. If the spectrum of spot and futures prices remains static over time, the forward seller who has contracted at a higher than spot price can make a profit equal to the contango by redeeming his commitment at the lower spot price when the contract matures. Consequently, when a seller in a contango market hedges, he makes a profit on the transaction in addition to avoiding a price change risk. On the other hand, buyers of the metal who hedge in a contango situation will sustain a loss equal to the contango. Producers of gold, however, are sellers of gold. For most metals and oil, there is no inherent reason why futures prices should be higher than present prices. Buyers and sellers decide that the price of the commodity will be lower or higher than present values for a variety of reasons.