Simulating Extraction Shapes to Understand Financial Risk Using High Performance Computing

Open pit mine enterprises are complex systems that depend on multiple parameters such as mineral grade distribution, geotechnical characteristics, economic conditions and engineering requirements, all of which vary in time and space with a different degree of uncertainty. The unpredictable nature of these inputs imposes a risk to mine owners and shareholders which in the worst case can lead to highly undesirable financial outcomes.Desktop studies commonly examine a set of scenarios based on adjusting variables such as commodity prices, mining costs, processing costs, and metal recoveries to understand their relative impact on the economics of a project. It is less common to systematically explore and simulate hundreds of alternative physical designs to understand and compare the financial risk associated with one or more mining projects.This paper presents a risk assessment tool set and methodology that uses web based cloud computing to enable multiple simulations of mine designs to be rapidly and efficiently executed. The methodology includes generating random sets of prices and costs values within their respective probability distributions. Pit designs are then created to maximise the profit for each set of input variables. Various approaches to analysing the results are discussed. Use of the same high performance computing environment for understanding the financial risk associated with the variability of the underlying geological resource model is also discussed, with provided examples using case studies from two of the major mineral producers.CITATION:Lima, E, Gregory, D, Lapworth, A and Faria, C, 2014. Simulating extraction shapes to understand financial risk using high performance computing, in Proceedings Orebody Modelling and Strategic Mine Planning Symposium 2014 , pp 351–360 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).