Some Phases of the Economic Outlook

THE paramount subject of interest and concern at the present time is the readjustment in economic conditions following the cataclysmic disturbance produced by the war and the misconceptions leading to an orgy of extravagance that prevailed during two years following the armistice he, time is too short for me to undertake to review the nature and extent of the upheavals occurring between August, 1914, and October, 1920. Bulky volumes will be written about them. . But I shall have to refer to some of the results in order to outline a prognosis. It is the future, not the past;' that is of most interest to us. Let me be so bold as to say, without further preface, that I am not optimistic as to the near future. .We shall, indeed, have revivals in trade, but they will be delusive if their nature be not 'understood. We shall build hopes and expectations upon political maneuvers and events, only to find in the end that they were folly. In the meanwhile fundamental economic influences will continue to exert their steady and irresistible pressure. The new administratiow at Washington has no magic wand with which to kindle the fires in our idle steel furnaces, or create a million new houses for the people; nor can the premiers of Europe put into motion the spindles of the cotton and woolen mills, or by any incantations compel the people of the Orient to buy goods. The people of the Orient, and of, Europe, and of the two Americas are in the grip of the same economic forces. The readjustment has proceeded further in some parts of the world than in others. In the United States I do not think we, have gone more than over the threshold. I shall tell you why 1 think thus, but in telling you I shall be limited, in view of the immensity of the subject, to a series of bald statements, without much elucidation.