Statistical Trends And Discoverability Modeling Of Gold Deposits In The Abitibi Greenstone Belt, Ontario

The set of discoveries for a mining district or camp is a reflection of the exploration history. In the western Abitibi greenstone belt of Ontario, future exploration can be guided by a study of statistical trends of known gold deposits. In this area simple trends indicate a strong decrease in the contained quantity of gold discovered through time. Much of this decrease is attributed not to falling mining grades but to smaller tonnages of ore. A plot of the largest discovery in each ten year time period suggests that deposit discoverability is following a size-biased sampling model. Cumulative ounces of discovered gold indicate that an asymptotic value has been reached where exploration is not expected to add significantly to known reserves. This is substantiated by a downward trend in the exploration success ratio of the number of new deposits discovered versus the number of new mineral prospects. The set of discovered deposits reflects a non-random sampling process where size- biased modeling suggests that the largest deposits will be discovered early in the exploration effort. It is the exceptionally large deposit contributing to the observed size-biased distribution. Although this pattern is observed for the western Abitibi the model is complicated by recent, large reserve additions that are attributed to the original discovery. There is present in this area a subtle learning process in exploration leading up to the largest discovery. For comparison a learning model was estimated using cumulative size of discovery per unit of time. This model yielded results consistent with the statistical trends and is thought to be a superior forecast of future discoveries in this region.