Statistically Based Estimates Of Uncertainty Of Coal Resources By Bed And Zone For The USGS National Coal Resource Assessment

Uncertainty estimates on coal resources were computed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Coal Resource Assessment study of more than 60 coal beds and zones in the Appalachian Basin, the Colorado Plateau, the Gulf Coast, the Illinois Basin, and the Northern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. The estimates were made to provide zone specific measures of uncertainty on the historical categories of geological assurance, namely measured, indicated, inferred and hypothetical. Previous estimates were based solely upon distance from a drill hole. These new estimates incorporate site-specific variability and spatial correlation and indicate that there is considerable difference in variability within and between regions. Uncertainty estimates for the measured category are discussed in this paper.