Stochastic Modeling Of Stormwater And Receiving Stream Concentrations

A stochastic approach was developed and applied to the Butte, Montana Hillside abandoned mining site for modeling stormwater runoff and subsequent receiving stream loadings. This approach enabled capture and quantification of the uncertainty associated with stormwater quality data and allowed the prediction of copper and zinc concentrations in the receiving stream caused by runoff from the Butte Hillside during storm events. Runoff flows and stormwater concentrations were input to the model as probability distribution functions. Monte Carlo simulation allowed prediction of expected instream concentrations in the form of cumulative distributions functions. The modeling results allowed evaluation of current best management practices (BMPs), targeting of future BMPs, and identification of key data gaps to fill during future sampling activities. This modeling approach is considered extendable to other active and inactive mining sites. Output from a model of this type is easily understood and can be used to communicate effective stormwater management to site regulators. Furthermore, application of this modeling approach will facilitate the development and implementation of a site-specific stormwater management plan and will optimize efforts to achieve standards for compliance with stormwater discharge permits.