Strong reserve bases are key to oil companies surviving over the long-term

Introduction An integrated oil company has two options in approaching strategic planning. It has to decide whether it is in business for the long-term. I state this in all seriousness. Those who help manage public companies have the responsibility of good stewardship of other people's money. We must decide whether continued investment in our basic business will generate a reasonable rate of return. With a world surplus of petroleum production capacity, and continuing downward pressure on prices, this question should be addressed by all oil companies. And a positive answer is not necessarily a foregone conclusion in all cases. The decision should be made based on proven competence in finding and developing petroleum reserves on a cost-competitive basis with other producers, and on a frank analysis of future prospects. This should include a realistic assessment of the projected rate of return on specific investment projects. If a company did not pass these tests, its strategy could take one of four paths. Diversification First, it could diversify. But recent history suggests that oil companies are not good at managing other businesses. Second, it could seek a buyer for its business at the optimum return for its owners. Third, it could sell its assets on a piecemeal basis. And, fourth, it could adopt a longer-range plan of self-liquidation by living off current recoverable reserves. In other words, by not investing in exploration and development, it could maximize short-term profit and pass the money back to shareholders in the form of dividends. The Conoco component of DuPont has a below-average cost of finding petroleum, a good track record of efficient production, and a full plate of projects that pass the test of return-on-investment. In short, Conoco is in business for the long-term. That fact, in itself, determines at least one key element in strategy. This is to extend the life of the petroleum reserve base while at the same time maintaining maximum efficient rates of production to provide a strong cash flow. A company that is able to maintain a strong reserve base will ultimately see the value of those reserves escalate as world oil supplies tighten. Our planners expect this tightening to occur within the next decade as demand grows and production in non-OPEC areas of the world begins to decline. An exploration program tailored to meet the requirements of reserve replacement and current production should have two basic parts. The first is relatively low-risk exploration in proven oil provinces. This is augmented by