Subsidence analysis and prediction based on a real case

The analysis of subsidence due to the opening of an underground void (mining, water exploitation or civil works hole) is a problem usually hard to solve. First of all, it requires a predictive model, in order to define both the displacement magnitude and area affected by subsidence. Such model should be validated with measurements of the actual movements sustained on the surface, in order to adjust it properly and enable influence of future behaviour in a reliable way. Two different kinds of problems might arise. On one side, it is necessary to control and measure surface movements in a very exhaustive way during a long period of time, beginning before underground works take place and finishing years after they are over. Furthermore, three factors bring in errors, some times of magnitudes higher than the displacement magnitudes measured. These include: the fact that reliable and long-term information cannot always be achieved; the precision of measuring devices; and the design of the topographical network itself. In addition, the predictive models more widely used only apply to certain excavation geometries, mainly to horizontal holes. In light of this background, the Group of Rock Engineering, of the University of Oviedo Mining Department, has developed a working methodology and a specific software tool, Subsidence 3D, to estimate ground displacements and strains. The program will allow for predictive models to be defined and also allows the treatment of data related with topographical marks and its comparative analysis with calculated results. The software has been programmed using Visual C++. Graphical outputs however are generated using AutoCAD 2000. This paper mainly refers to a practical situation, an underground coalmine, remarking the main difficulties arisen during the study of the available information and proposing how to solve them. A predictive model in subsidence 3D was established and validated. The actual behaviour of the ground was that in the model.