Super Cycle: Past, Present And Future

Traditional cycle theory would postulate that if you have a supply shortage relative to demand, the price will increase because buyers will incrementally increase the price they are willing to pay to ensure that their needs are fulfilled. As prices rise, more supply will be brought on and will eventually exceed demand. This supply excess will cause the price to decline as producers have to lower their prices to sell their goods. What is interesting is that cycles are simply volatility over time. Without the time factor, volatility simply goes up and down. When we add the time element, a cycle is created. This cycle can be big or small. In mining?s case, we are talking about a Super Cycle ? a big cycle. But a Su-per Cycle can be formed in two ways. It can form by either increasing the wavelength or the volatility. If these two elements are combined, a Super Cycle is formed. It is bigger than the normal cycle in terms of time duration and extent of volatility. A recent study (Fig. 1) conducted by Cuddington and Jarrett showed an interesting proof of Super Cycles and suggests that these cycles last between 15 and 30 years. So, what causes a Su-per Cycle? Is it a convergence of unrelated events or a consequence of related events? In a global community everything is related. Equilibrium theory would also take the position that a Super Cycle is a consequence of events.