Super Cycle: The Future

Super Cycle future The final topic is mining?s future. The most important questions are ?How much longer is the Super Cycle going to last? What should we expect to see going forward? How will the Super Cycle end?? Three possible scenarios follow. Scenario one: Super Cycle has peaked Kathy Casey-Kirschling is officially the first Baby Boomer. She was born Jan. 1st, 1946. If you google ?first baby boomer,? she?s the one that shows up. A Baby Boomer is anybody born between 1946 and 1964. In the United States, it represents about a quarter of the population ? approximately 76 million people. The Baby Boomer generation is going to change the economics of the world because there are so many in the generation. A review of spending patterns indicates that the largest amount of discretionary spending occurs between the ages of 49 and 52. Retired people tend to live on fixed incomes so they have less discretionary income. They also tend to downsize their house, which may contribute to the housing glut and the need for a lot less metal. Therefore, the upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomer generation could result in a massive shift in economic spending resulting in the peaking of the Super Cycle. Figure 1 is an index graph from the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The index has recently peaked. A lot of people see that as a sign that bad things coming our way. A careful review of different commodity prices also suggest that the peak has occurred and it does not seem to matter which commodity prices are considered. Copper prices have seen a peak as have nickel prices. Nickel and molybdenum displayed the same trend with a peak in 2005 as did zinc. Uranium, which has single-handedly tried to behave like the dot com craze, has also peaked.