Superconductivity And The Substitution For Copper

The potential for the wide-spread commercialization of superconductivity, the disappearance of all resistance to a direct current (D.C.) electric flow, began in 1986-87 with the development by Bednorz and Muller at IBM's Zurich Laboratory of an yttrium -barium -copper oxide conductor which attained zero resistance at 90t:. Although the status of superconductivity is still pre-bench scale, it is useful to forecast its probable effects on the copper industry. I t should not be forgotten that at their inception, the impacts of transistors, semi-conductors, thin films and fiber optics on the electric/electronics sector of this industry, were largely underestimated. Superconductors are not metals, but a class of ceramics. They represent an efficiency increase of one or more orders of magnitude. If their development is to be a boon to the copper industry, rather than a reduction of metal demand through miniaturization or material substitution, vastly expanded copper containing electrical uses must be in prospect. In this paper the projected uses of high temperature superconductivity are examined, followed by the remaining problems to be overcome. Assuming success, a time horizon for maturation is estimated. The penalties for the non-recognition of new markets and material substitution are shown on the basis of past forecasts. Finally, the application of successful superconductivity to the copper industry over the forecast period is estimated.