Supply and Demand For Mining Engineers to the Year 2000

"Ten years ago," said a mining industry personnel manager, "we used to wine and dine new mining engineering graduates. Now I can pick and choose among men with 10 years of experience." Comments like that are common throughout the industry today. During the 1970s, the US and Canada did indeed suffer from a severe shortage of mining engineers, especially experienced ones. Moreover, it seemed likely this North American shortage would worsen. Increased production of minerals and coal was pushing demand for mining engineers upwards, and there appeared to be substantial new employment prospects for them in the nascent synfuels industry. The oil majors entering the mining industry were pushing for an increased professionalization of mining management, heralding a trend towards higher intensity in the use of mining engineers. In response to the shortage, mining schools expanded their programs dramatically. By 1982, American schools were churning out more than 600 new mining engineers per year, compared to barely 200 in 1970 (Table 1). The timing of the explosion in the number of mining engineers could not have been worse. The downturn in the economy and the resulting slump in the mining industry coincided almost exactly with peak output of mining engineers. The market for mining engineers shifted from shortage to surplus with startling rapidity. The new crop of engineers, no longer courted by the mining companies, struggled to find any mining jobs. At the same time, experienced mining engineers found themselves thrown into the job market, some for the first time in decades. The current oversupply of mining engineers is assumed to be a temporary phenomenon. As the economy recovers, the demand for mining engineers is expected to pick up at least enough to absorb today's surplus. Not so, according to a recent study by Fenvessy and Schwab, a general management consulting and executive recruiting firm. In 1979, Fenvessy and Schwab was commissioned by a group of major mining companies to conduct a worldwide study of supply and demand for mining engineers to the year 2000*. The study began at the height of the North American shortage. One major objective of the study was "to identify means by which business and educational institutions may cope with and alleviate a future shortage of mining engineering talent." The findings, however, ran directly counter to expectations. The current oversupply will not disappear with economic recovery, the study concluded. In fact, the US and Canada are facing a massive oversupply that will probably last until the end of the century, unless enrollments in schools are reduced. Study Method Fenvessy and Schwab's conclusions are based on supply and demand models for mining engineers that it developed in the course of the study. Specifically, predictions for the supply of mining engineers are based on a survey of the 54 mining schools that account for about 90% of the world's annual output of mining engineering graduates. This survey asked for data on historical and projected number of graduates, obstacles to further expansion, changing trends in the use of mining engineers, and graduate career patterns. Fenvessy and Schwab developed three mining engineering supply scenarios from the survey data. The high case, considered unlikely for most of the industrialized world, is based on a continuation of the 1970's soaring growth rates. The middle case was established from the mining schools' own estimates of future growth in the number of graduating mining engineers. Finally, a "low growth" case for the US and Canada assumed that the number of graduating engineers will remain at current levels. Mining engineering demand was forecast using a complex model based on the demand for 50 major minerals. Formulas were