Technical Note - Study Of The Size Distribution Of The Carlin Trend Gold Deposits

Introduction The Carlin Trend is North America's premier gold producing district. It is located in northeastern Nevada's Elko and Eureka Counties along a northwest trending belt about 65 km (40 miles) long and 8 km (5 miles) wide (Thorstad, 1989; Jones, 1989). This trend is the worldwide reference site for epithermal, sedimentary rock-hosted microscopic gold deposits. At least 19 deposits have been discovered to date, varying in size from 933 kg to 1.08 kt (30,000 to 35 million contained oz) of gold (Fig. 1). Newmont Gold Co. and its parent, Newmont Mining Corp., jointly constitute the largest mineral right holders in the district. They own or control more than 1000 km' (386 sq miles) in and around the Carlin Trend and own all or part of I6out of the 19 mines and prospects identified to date. Since the initiation of Newmont's exploration activities in the Carlin Trend in 1961, 2.24 kt (72 million oz) of cumulative gold resources have been identified. Cumulative production from all mines since the start-up of Newmont's Carlin mine in 1965 to the end of 1989 was about 202 t (6.5 million oz) (Jones, 1989). The incentive of sustained high gold prices and innovation in processing technology resulted in a significant acceleration of gold output over the last few years. Newmont Gold alone produced more than 43.5 t (1.4 million oz) in 1989. That is equal to 22% of the cumulative 1965 to 1988 output, and an almost 200% increase over its 1986 output. The same incentives produced even more spectacular exploration results. In each of the last five years, net additions to reserves and resources outpaced current production by substantial margins. These facts demonstrate the spectacular past prospectiveness of the Carlin Trend and the success of focused, multi-disciplinary exploration methods that made it possible to more than offset the recent accelerated depletion of gold resources. However, is this situation sustainable? How long can the mining companies along the Carlin Trend keep on finding resources faster than they deplete them? These are some of the questions that motivated this study. The authors have not quantified the future potential for gold exploration in the Carlin Trend nor established a deposit discovery path. But strong indications were discovered that the [ ] Carlin Trend remains a relatively immature exploration district and that the potential for significant new discoveries is high. Methodology and data The approach chosen to address the above questions was simple. The authors compiled deposit size data, measured in contained ounces of gold resources, for all known deposits along the Carlin Trend (Table 1). The resource information was obtained by adding cumulative historical production (adjusted for mining losses and metallurgical recovery) to 1989 year-end published resource inventories. In a mature exploration area, where most deposits have been discovered, this distribution would be expected to approximate lognormality and would plot along a straight line on a lognormal probability scale. This result was found in previous work by Allais (1957) and recently confirmed by Cox and Singer (USGS, 1986) in regard to various types of mineral deposits in several regions of the world. It was also found to hold true for oil and gas pool size distributions (Arps and Roberts, 1958; Kaufman, 1962; McCrossan, 1969). [ ] The data used were compiled by Newmont Exploration geologists. The purpose of the study is to make inferences about the underlying geologic processes in the district and the maturity of the exploration effort. Therefore, deposits were not classified according to ownership but according to geologic occurrence as known from current information. Newmont's Post and Barrick's Goldstrike and Betze deposits, for example, are shown as a single occurrence to reflect the actual geologic setting. The cumulative frequency distribution of deposit sizes was plotted on lognormal probability paper (Fig. 2). The abscissa shows the cumulative fraction of deposits at or below a certain deposit size and the ordinate shows the deposit size in thousands of ounces of contained gold resources.