The Economics of Exhaustible Mineral Resources—Concepts and Techniques in Optimization Revisited

"SynopsisThe last commodities supercycle (2003 to 2011) was characterized by a belief in volume at any cost, where absolute output was deliberately prioritized over productivity considerations. This practice fuelled overoptimistic forecasting and planning, which in turn contributed to the economic crisis that followed. The sudden collapse of commodity prices has resulted in mining companies scrambling to find the right balance between optimizing current operations and preserving sufficient flexibility to grasp future opportunities. The runaway costs of building and operating mines have almost squeezed out profit margins, while lower ore grades are inflating production costs. Mining companies therefore need to look at the business with fresh eyes, and develop strategies to attract equity capital as traditional approaches are simply not working anymore. This is especially so in the context of a dwindling investor base that continues to demand greater returns, despite a significantly lower appetite for risk. This paper revisits the micro-economic concepts and demonstrates how pressure from shareholders to prioritize output contributed to spiralling costs and value destruction. Practical techniques are described to model cost curves to optimize a Mineral Resource endowment and address the need to rightbalance a business and preserve agility.IntroductionHenry Lazenby (2014) for the Mining Weekly writes, ‘Bruised and battered, the global mining industry today is undergoing a sea change. Practices and policies that might have worked wonders in the past are not as relevant today, and new approaches to running profitable mining operations need to be found.’ One significant practice the mining industry had during the last commodities supercycle (2003 to 2011) was chasing volume at any cost; absolute output was deliberately prioritized over productivity considerations (Goldsmith, 2013). Lazenby contends that in the face of falling and volatile commodity prices, many mining majors ‘across all commodity groups are currently grappling with sagging profits and low company valuations. This is often regarded as the result of the were in pursuit of growing their output at all costs in a high commodity price environment.’ Lee Hodgkinson, KPMG’s Canadian mining industry leader and quoted by Lazenby, says that ‘mining companies are now trying to find the right balance between optimizing current operations and preserving their agility to grasp future opportunities. The runaway costs of building and operating mines have almost squeezed out profit margins [whilst] lower grades of ore are inflating production costs. Mining companies need to look at the business with fresh eyes, and develop strategies to attract equity capital as it seems clear that some of the traditional approaches to the mining business are simply not working anymore."