The Effect of Inflation on the Evaluation of Mines

"AbstractThe paper identifies the major components of price change which affect the determination of the internal rate of return of a mining project. It illustrates several price indexes which may be used to measure general price increases, identifying techniques which might incorporate them into mine valuation procedures. The ""hurdle rate"" for new investment is discussed.IntroductionDECISIONS regarding the value of an orebody and whether or when to mine an orebody are based on an estimate of the cash flows which would be associated with its exploitation. These pro-forma cash flows represent cash in or out of a possible mineable deposit and include exploration and construction costs, sales revenues, operating expenses, taxes, debt borrowings, interest and debt repayment. It has long been recognized that when combining the cash flows occurring over the life of the mine, dollars received or paid out early have greater value than those received or paid out later. This time value of money has been incorporated into mine evaluation calculations through the use of present-value or discounting techniques. Another factor affecting mine valuation, inflation, is not accounted for by valuation techniques now in use. In recent years, price changes have become more volatile. In the past, price change could easily be ignored when evaluating potential mines. Today, the combination of larger investments and greater price volatility leads to great concern about the effects of price change on mine valuation."