The Energy Dilemma - Which Fuel, What Market, When? ? Introduction

The expansion of the United States economy in the postwar period has had a tremendous impact on the demand for energy. Not only has total energy consumption increased at an unprecedented rate, but there have been major shifts in the composition or mix of energy resources within the end-use sectors. Because of the numerous interrelationships between substitutable energy resources and their markets, the energy economy can only be analyzed in terms of the trends of its component parts. This problem takes on additional complexity when attempting to chart the nation's future energy requirements. Total energy consumption can be forecast with reasonable accuracy for periods up to 15 years by relating this to projections of economic indicators. However, forecasting the component parts of the energy economy constitutes a dilemma in that the sum of the projected parts frequently exceeds predictions for total energy. Areas of uncertainty in energy forecasting tend to mount rapidly when proceeding from total energy to the consideration of specific energy resources consumed as fuel, power, or raw materials.