The Gold Price: Paradox And Promise

Gold has always been a crisis investment. For centuries gold has been considered globally the money of last resort. In time of war, inflation, financial uncertainty, political upheaval there has with few exceptions always been a flight to gold. The gold paradox simply is that even though we have gone through for the past handful of years all the kinds of. anxieties that would cause the gold price to rise, it has instead dropped drastically. Figure 1. illustrates the important factors that influenced the gold price significantly up or down before 1987. Obviously, since then, even though we have had wars, inflation, financial problems involving breaking banks and thrifts let alone collapsing financial institutions, the gold price has both in the long-term and the short-term trended downwards. Figure 2. depicts the gold price path since 1987. If the presence of time-honored and time-tested factors that should have driven the gold price up didn't do the job, then logic dictates that new factors to drive the gold price down and keep it depressed arose. And they did. But before addressing these depressants permit me to turn to the arcane art of gold price prediction and fore-casting.