The Impact Of A Falling Dollar On Commodities And Latin American Trade - Introduction And Conclusions

When Dr. David Gully solicited this paper last spring a few questions basic to commodity trade between the U.S. and world markets appeared perplexing. Why, for example, when the demand for aluminum was at a peak and when little expansion of capacity had taken place, was the dollar price half of what it had been at the previous peak? Or, why in 1984 when imports surged by 50% as the U.S. economy pulled out of its recession did the dollar not fall, but rather rose by 35%? And, why when the experts all seemed to agree that the dollar was grossly overvalued did the price of gold continue to decline? Surely these were extraordinary times for the mineral economist. When this paper was written in late July, 1985 the answers seemed clearer. The prices of many commodities were not low - the dollar in which they were denominated was too high. In other currencies many commodity prices were indeed high. The dollar was overvalued in trade terms by some 40% caused by an influx of short term coupon investments made by foreign money managers to take advantage of the higher short term interest rates in the U.S. relative to other international banking centers. With a decline in the relative difference in interest rates, an unhealthy buildup of foreign bank accounts and a perception that the dollar would fall, the dollar did start to decline rapidly.