The Impact of Transportation Network upon the Potential Supply of Base and Precious Metals from Sonora, Mexico

"Potential metal supply refers to metals to be produced from as yet unknown deposits. Naturally, to measure potential supply requires, among other things, inference to the number of deposits, their tonnage, and their grade Thus, probability distributions were constructed for each 400-square mile cell in Northern Sonora, Mexico. A computer system was developed that simulated the occurrence of deposits for each cell, exploration for the deposits, and their exploitation. Evaluation was performed for each deposit by discounted cash flow analysis.An objective of this study was to explore the effect of the transportation network and required road or railroad construction upon potential supply. Consequently, the evaluation system was designed to consider the spatial location of a simulated deposit to the existing transportation network and the market destination. The construction of linkages to connect the deposit to existing transportation arteries as well as the carrying of the concentrates to the intended market were simulated. in terms of cost. The selection of the path took into account the existing terrain. This was done by digitizing topographical maps and representing the topography of the area by an orthogonal grid of elevations. The optimum route was selected by dynamic programming, meeting a prescribed gradient constraint. The potential supply of each cell was determined, allowing for the infrastructure effect."