The Influence of Various Factors on the Results of Stability Analysis of Rock Slopes and on the Evaluation of Risk

"The design of rock slopes in the planning and operation of open pit mines and for road and rail cuttings requires the evaluation of their stability. This is commonly done using two well-established methods – limit equilibrium and numerical modelling. The research described in this paper compares the outputs of analyses using these two methods with regard to factor of safety and probability of failure, taking into account technical factors associated with each method and other factors such as material parameters and their variabilities. Results show that technical factors such as number of slices and slip circles, number and type of finite elements, and the stress reduction factor can all affect the results of stability analyses. Factors not taken into account in limit equilibrium analyses, such as dilation, in situ stress, and locked-in stresses can affect the outputs significantly. The research has focused particularly on the predicted location of the failure surface, the resulting volume of failure and, most significantly dependent on this volume, the predicted risk associated with slope failure. The results presented show that there is good agreement between the outputs of the two methods regarding factor of safety and probability of failure. However, the same is not the case with regard to volume of failure and hence risk, which can be very dependent on the methods of analysis and their input parameters. The research is not exhaustive, and there are many other factors that could affect the results of slope stability analyses that were not investigated. Some such factors are mentioned in the paper.IntroductionThe design of rock slopes in the planning and operation of open pit mines and for road and rail cuttings requires the evaluation of their stability. The traditional method of stability analysis used limit equilibrium (LE) methods, and this approach continues to be used. Numerical modelling (NM) packages are now also commonly used in slope stability analyses. The outputs from these analyses provide the factor of safety (FOS) and probability of failure (POF) of the slope. Since the capabilities of the two approaches are different, there can be some variations in FOS and POF outputs and in the predicted location of the failure surface. These variations can affect the predicted volume of failure, and this could in turn have a significant effect on the risk associated with the potential failure (Read and Stacey, 2009). Researchers such as Chiwaye and Stacey (2010) have found that LE analyses underestimate the predicted failure volume, unlike NM methods."