The Myth Of Growth At Any Price

Although the mineral shortages of twelve to eighteen months ago have given way to oversupply, their memory lingers on. These problems were man-made: booming demand throughout the industrial world, political and industrial unrest and the oil embargo all contributed. But in the minds of many, the shortages conjured up visions of the depletion of the world's mineral resources, a disaster that could be staved off only by drastic curbs on consumption and therefore, curbs on economic growth. A little historical research shows that fears such as this are not inventions of the 1970's. A hundred years ago, for example, the imminent exhaustion of the world's coal supplies was being predicted in Great Britain. The English economist, John Stuart Mill, who was usually more perceptive, wrote a few years earlier that "it is only in the backward countries of the world that increased production is still an important object". And later there was Franklin Roosevelt who said in 1932, "Our industrial plant is built; the problem just now is whether under existing conditions, it is not overbuilt". His concern, in other words, was not with the discovery and exploitation of new natural resources, but with the administration of known resources and with seeking foreign markets for surplus production. In light of copper prices at the time -- just under 6¢ a pound -- that was understandable. These instances illustrate how, throughout the world's industrial history, concern about surpluses of raw materials has alternated with alarm about the adequacy of supplies and with calls for restricting growth.