The Use and Conservation of Coal in South Africa

G. H. HENDERSON INTRODUCTION It is a pleasure to have read Mr Schuman's wide ranging and highly informative paper and also to congratulate him. Before proceeding to give views on the use and preservation of coal in South Africa, it is perhaps apposite to look at the South African scene on the world canvas. Mr Schuman's figures in his Table I are highly revealing. The Table shows expected consumption, export and import demand in the year 1980 by the continents of the world. The Republic of South Africa is shown as one of only four exporting countries at that date, although in the interim, Australia has become an exporter and will continue to grow as an exporter of coal. Huge fields have been proved in recent years. There is reason to think that for some years, coal and its economical uses have been under-estimated. The importation of oil carries a constant question mark and the exciting possibilities expressed in the uses of Dranium a decade ago for power generation, appear to have met with some setback. Present indications are that breederreactors will be delayed until about 1990. The capital cost of such reactors, too, is enormous. By 1980 it has been estimated that 20 per cent of the energy required by the leading ten nations of the world will come from nuclear power, but 80 per cent would then remain for fossil fuels and hydro generation. COAL DEMAND AND USAGE It is of interest to record that coal production in all the countries of Europe has declined markedly in the last 25 years. This is due to competition from oil, gas and nuclear power and also for sociological reasons; but there are signs that efforts will be made to resuscitate, at least in some measure, the mining of coking coals for which there is a strong and growing demand. Possibly all hard coal now mined in Germany has coking properties and that country is self-sufficient in this commodity. Germany might perhaps consider selling coking coal to her neighbours and importing additional coal for power-raising purposes. It has been frequently stated in American publications that the coal reserves of the D.S.A. are sufficient for 1 000 years. What that means, I do not know, but it is at least an indication that America has huge reserves of coal. Domestic and export demand in the U.S.A. in 1968 exceeded production for the first time. In 1969, the United States' output amounted to some 556 million tons, an increase of less than 2 per cent on the previous year. The output achieved fell short of demand, domestic and export, by more than 7 000 000 tons. This has caused and is continuing to cause anxiety in the U.S.A. In many countries young men for a number of reasons, largely environmental and social, are not coming forward in sufficient numbers for mining requirements and the same pattern has revealed itself in the Republic. This is, indeed, alarming because mining men in large numbers will be required to meet the estimated tonnage requirements set out in the following Table: It is difficult to visualise the replacement of these coal requirements either by oil or by nuclear fuels. The coal must be mined and men are required for the purpose. Unless a greater section of the population is allowed to participate in the more responsible aspects of mining, there is a serious likelihood that demand will not be matched by output. In addition to local demand, a lively export trade is possible. Exports are dependent on the future capacity of the South African Railways and Harbours and on Government policy. An export figure of 10000000 tons per year during the decade can be visualised and this figure would raise total estimated sales production to a figure of over 100 000 000 tons in 1980. At this point, it is necessary to examine the desirability or otherwise of exporting coal. How much coal