The witchcraft and logic of gold pricing – politics, inflation, speculation, and the value of the dollar are all contributing factors

Introduction What drives the price of gold? Supply and demand, of course. But in ways far different from the forces that drive the prices of other major metals, such as steel, aluminum, and copper. Gold, in fact, is one of the few commodities where both buyers and sellers are happy when the price goes up. Current production, production costs, and variations in production have little influence on its price. Gold inventories are so tremendous that current production has small impact on the amounts available to the market at any time. Worldwide gold inventory and production The world's inventories seem to be between 78 and 98 kt (2.5 and 3 billion oz). Since biblical times, the gold miners of the world have produced about 98 kt (3 billion oz), mostly in this century. Only small amounts have been thrown away and most of it - more than 78 kt (2.5 billion oz) - remain in bullion, coins, or jewelry. About 40% is held by central banks and other governmental authorities, 30% by private individuals as bullion or coins, and about 30% as jewelry. Except for some of the jewelry and the few industrial applications, this inventory is constantly available in marketable form at a price. By comparison, gold production is indeed small. The US Bureau of Mines estimates that the world produced 1.5 kt (50 million oz) of gold in 1986. Consequently, production increased world inventories by only 2%. Variations in production have a negligible or very short-term effect on the supply and, consequently, on the markets for gold. Although South Africa mines about 40% to 50% of the world's annual production, continuing labor strife there does not seem to have ruffled gold prices. Determining gold's price Gold prices, however, do determine cutoff grades in the mines and, thus, do influence production. Nonetheless, changes in production have little impact on the inventory supply. Consequently, it has small influence on the price of gold on the market. With a fairly stable supply, price changes are driven by changes in its demand. Unlike other metals, very little of the demand for gold comes from industry. Dental, electronic, and other industrial uses for gold consume less than 46.6 t/a (1.5 million oz per year). It would be safe to assume that such uses are less than 124 t/a (4 million oz per year) for the entire world. Variations in the 124 t (4 million oz), compared to a supply of 78 kt (2.5 billion oz) of supply can have only a negligible effect. Production net of industrial uses adds perhaps 1% annually to world inventories. This could, in time, affect markets. The increase, however, is mostly absorbed by population growth - more people wanting to own gold - and by gold being put in more attractive forms, such as coins. As an ancient Lydian king discovered, minting bullion permits