Third Quarter 1983 Performance Of The U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy showed further strength during the third quarter of 1983, continuing the upward trend discussed in the last two issues of Minerals and Materials. The National Association of Purchasing Management composite index increased to a 10-year high of 67. 1 in July. (A value of 50 or greater indicates expanding industrial activity.) The index, a weighted composite of new orders, production, employment, vendor performance, and inventories, is derived from a survey of purchasing agents for about 250 industrial firms. Investment and Other National Economic Indicators The strong consumer surge of second quarter 1983 was reinforced during the third quarter by the performance of private investment. Because of this, many analysts became more optimistic about the strength of the recovery and its potential for being sustained. Capital investment growth, negative since 1980, was positive for every investment component in the third quarter of 1983. Preliminary estimates indicate a real increase of $1.4 billion (at an annual rate) in private investment expenditures on nonresidential structures, an increase of $4.3 billion (at an annual rate) for producers' durable equipment, and an increase of $4.8 billion (at an annual rate) in real inventory levels. The second quarter 1983 increase in expenditures on producers' durable equipment was the first indicator that investment recovery would occur during the rest of the year (table 1). Corporate profits in total manufacturing increased $6.5 billion from first quarter to second quarter 1983 (table 2).