Third-Quarter National Economic Activity And Fourth-Quarter Outlook - Third-Quarter 1987

The economy continued to expand during the third quarter, as real GNP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8%, up from 2.5% in the second quarter (table 1). Continued job gains (see below), higher incomes, and an increase in installment debt, resulted in a nearly 20% increase in consumer spending on durable goods. Consumer expenditure on nondurables fell slightly, while spending on services continued at a moderate pace. Nonresidential fixed investment climbed nearly 24%, as producers purchased more durable equipment. Residential fixed investment was adversely affected by rising interest rates, which slowed new home construction from January to August, 1987 to a rate 11.2% below a comparable period in 1986. Net exports of goods and services deteriorated slightly, after three consecutive quarters of improvement. The volume of net exports has risen 15% for the year, contributing to economic and employment growth, but large price increases on imports have slowed the improvement in the nominal trade balance. Although U.S. goods have declined in price relative to foreign goods because of the devaluation of the dollar, faster growth in exports is hampered by austerity programs in developing countries, and emphasis in Germany and Japan on curtailing inflation and fiscal deficits.