Third-Quarter National Economic Activity And Fourth-Quarter Outlook - Third-Quarter National Economic Statistics

Buoyed primarily by growing consumer spending, the economy rebounded from a weak second quarter. According to preliminary estimates released by the Department of Commerce, real gross national product (GNP) grew $2 1.9 billion during the third quarter, producing a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 2.4%, compared with a rate of 0.6% in the second quarter of 1986 and 4.1% for the third quarter of 1985 (table 1). Third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and Government purchases of goods and services rose $42 billion and $7 billion, respectively, but those gains were partially offset by the continuing decline of gross private domestic investment, off $16 billion, and the growing trade deficit, up $11 billion. Three quarters of the growth in consumer spending occurred in the durable goods sector as consumers responded to discounted financing offered by automobile manufacturers attempting to lower inventories of 1986 vehicles, Increased purchases of other durable goods, such as furniture and home furnishings, also contributed to the strength of the durable goods sector. The success of the automobile inventory reduction program as well as weak factory output led to a $20 billion decline in inventory growth. Investment for housing and producers' durable equipment expanded, however, and mitigated some of the impact of slower inventory depending on gross private domestic investment, Capital spending for nonresidential structures declined for the third consecutive quarter. The declining capital spending and the growing trade deficit continued to be significant and interrelated problems for the economy. Real capital spending for new plants and equipment during 1986 is expected to decline 2.5% after rising 8.7% in 1985 and 15.8% in 1984 (table 2). It is likely that capital expenditures bottomed out in the second quarter and that they will expand in the third and fourth quarters. The first-half decline was partially attributed to uncertainty arising from the pending tax- overhaul bill. Furthermore, there is little impetus for corporations to invest in new capacity since factories are operating at less than 80% of capacity (table 3) largely because of the continuing growth of imports. The growth rate of the trade deficit dropped sharply in the third quarter to less than half that of the previous quarter. Low oil prices, declining auto- mobile and steel imports, and increased exports of agricultural goods contributed to this decline. The continued low growth of the economy caused the Federal Reserve System to reduce the discount rate for the fourth time this year (in late August), drop ping it to 5,596, the lowest level in about 9 years. Inflation, as measured by the fixed- weighted GNP price Index, continues to remain low, but rose from the revised second-quarter level of 1.7% to 2.596, mostly because of rising food costs.