Total seismicity, and the application of ESS analysis to mine layouts

A simple method for the application of excess shear stress (ESS) analysis to the mining of planar reefs is examined. The potential for seismicity associated with mining is expressed as the calculated increase in ESS on a regular grid of points 50 m above the reef, and is compared with observed seismicity around a deep-level, relatively geologicaly-undisturbed gold mine. Thirty regions were studied, involving over 2000 seismic events with magnitudes greater than 1,5 on the Richter scale and associated with almost 2 million square metres of stoping. The total seismicity, measured either as the number of seismic events or as the total radiated energy, corelated more closely with changes in ESS than with ERR. The incidence of rockbursts also favoured the ESS model. Corelation coeficients of around 0,8 for seismicity and ESS indicated that the assumptions inherent in the method used are collectively reasonable. The total seismicity in each region was found not to be strongly controlled by the presence of dykes and faults, although numerous individual seismic events were located close to such features.