Towards best practice for routine seismic hazard assessment in mines

Seismic monitoring became commonplace in the deep South African gold mines in the early 1990’s. The discipline has, to a large extent, developed beyond the ‘research’ stage, and a ‘Guide to Seismic Monitoring in Mines’ has been accepted by the Department of Minerals and Energy1. Although ongoing research is a requirement for the achievement of all the objectives of seismic monitoring in mines, sufficient knowledge exists to apply seismic monitoring for routine seismic hazard assessment as an aid to risk management. The design and management of seismic monitoring systems can be tested against requirements spelled out in the ‘Guide’. Assuming the seismic monitoring system performs as per requirement, the best practice for routine seismic hazard assessment in mines includes • Long term seismic hazard assessment: through back analysis of seismic data and correlation with numerical modelling output, reasonable tests for planned mine designs are possible. • Medium term seismic hazard assessment: o Spatial analysis through contouring of seismic strain related parameters, with superimposed contours or event plots of stress related parameters allow the delineation of potential instabilities in space. o Quantitative and statistical analyses of seismicity in smaller spatial units (usually encompassing production sites) allow the comparative seismic hazard rating of different areas/sites so that rock engineering input and risk management can be optimised • Short term seismic hazard assessment relies mainly on time history analyses of particular seismicity parameters. The temporal patterns are controlled by a combination of temporal and parameter filters, the optimisation of which determines the success rate.