Trends In Real Prices Of Representative Mineral Commodities, 1890-1957

The price records of 7 representative mineral commodities for the 68-year period 1890 through 1957 have been compiled and analyzed for significant trends. When reduced to real prices in terms of dollars of constant purchasing power or to the purchasing power of industrial wages at average rates, a substantial overall fall in prices is revealed. This downtrend contradicts the widely held concept that, heavy drafts on a mineral resource must lead to scarcity, reflected in rising prices. Three metals (aluminum, copper, and pig iron), two fuels (bituminous coal and petroleum)', and two nonmetals (sulfur and cement) have been chosen because of their preeminence in their respective categories, their significance in an industrial economy, and the ready availability of their price records. It might be added that these seven commodities. were selected before any price figures were compiled, none was selected or rejected to substantiate any preconceived notions as to price trends, The overall importance of the seven is demonstrated by the fact that, taken together, they composed over three-fourths of the value of all minerals produced in the United States in 1957. The first step in the analysis was to reduce the price records to a basis for significant comparisons, Two such comparisons have been made: (1) The quantities of each of the commodities that could have been purchased for an average hour's wage in each year; and (2) the unit price of each commodity through hhe years in terms of deflated dollars. These data are set forth in the accompanying table and two charts.